Agoa has officially lapsed but US mulls one-year extension

The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition says the US is considering a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). The programme, which gave non-­reciprocal, duty-free access to the lucrative US market for most exports from 32 eligible sub-Saharan countries, including South Africa, expired on 30 September 2025. But it’s not known if it will be renewed.

Agoa had been central to US-Africa trade since 2000, and was considered particularly vital for South Africa’s automotive industry and fruit and nut producers. In 2023, South Africa exported goods to the US worth $3.244-billion under Agoa, including automotive equipment, agricultural goods and textiles.

The loss of Agoa benefits could have a devastating impact on these industries at a time when South Africa is already grappling with the impact of US President Donald Trump’s 30% tariff on many goods. Thousands of jobs are estimated to depend on Agoa in the citrus sector alone.

Read more: How Agoa non-renewal threatens South African citrus industry and US consumers

But trade department spokesperson Kaamil Ali told Daily Maverick that the US is considering a “short extension” of Agoa “for a one-year period”. “The extension will simply continue the current Agoa agreement as it is,” Ali said.

The Financial Times reported last month that a White House official had confirmed that the Trump administration was supportive of a one-year extension of Agoa. However, Washington insiders cautioned that they didn’t believe this was necessarily the prevailing view in the administration, and they were not confident Agoa would be revived.

The newspaper reported that Lesotho’s trade minister, Mokhethi Shelile, said members of Congress had assured him of a one-year extension by “November at the latest” during a visit to Washington in September.

Western Cape premier Alan Winde, who has just returned from a trip to the US to meet several officials and leaders of the US Congress, told Daily Maverick: “I’m quite positive on extensions of Agoa. The way they want to do it is attach it to a finance bill, because they’ve got to pass their finance bills.” 

Read more: Winde punts US investment in Western Cape and pushes to cut harsh Trump tariffs

Winde said he thought it would probably be a one-year extension, though it could possibly stretch to two years.

Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau told the Kgalema Motlanthe Foundation’s Inclusive Growth Forum on 11 October that although it was the prerogative of Congress to renew Agoa, “the ­reality is that some in Congress are also waiting for a signal from the White House, and I think that the signal has come out that the White House would not oppose”.

“But the reality is that there’s been an emphasis on the bilateral engagements and some of the issues have fallen by the wayside – and Agoa is one of those that suffered that fate,” Tau said.

“As we understand it, it is going to go to Congress as soon as possible. […] We hope it’ll be attached to another bill because that enables it to gain traction in terms of speed for consideration. And we are hoping that between now and November, that matter will be concluded,” he added.

He also said South Africa was “at least on the verge of negotiating an agreement around tariffs and an agreement around how this can be reciprocally beneficial as opposed to the historic way in which this has been presented”.

Some have interpreted this remark as meaning that Tau was saying South Africa was about to conclude a done trade deal with the Trump administration. But Ali explained that Tau had indicated that “we are at a stage where we are developing a text upon which the negotiations will be based”.

He said this was being taken “through government processes including the state law adviser”, which meant, in effect, that South Africa and the US were on the verge of starting formal negotiations.

The transactional Trump slapped a 30% tariff on South African goods on 7 August, after Pretoria failed to reach a deal with Washington by his 1 August deadline.

If Agoa is extended, the 30% tariffs on South African goods would still apply. This would seem to make Agoa superfluous – unless South Africa is able to negotiate them down through bilateral talks.

An official told Daily Maverick that the import tariffs on South Africa’s exports to the US should be considered relative to the tariffs imposed by the US on the imports from other countries competing with South Africa.

For starters, the official noted that all countries exporting to the US are now subject to a reciprocal tariff of at least 10%. “So 10% is the new zero,” the official said. Thus, if South Africa could negotiate its reciprocal tariff down to say 15%, Agoa might help it to remain competitive on some exports to the US relative to non-Agoa countries.

Winde emphasised that South Africa needed to start gearing itself to transition from Agoa to a normal reciprocal free trade agreement with the US as soon as possible, and it needed to offer the US something more in exchange for a better tariff deal.

While in Washington, he proposed to offer the US investment in a gas-to-energy project at Saldanha Bay, among other things. This energy could power both the Western Cape’s peaking power plant at ­Anker­­lig as well as the mothballed Saldanha Steel plant, which is being revived as a result of Arcelor­Mittal finally being persuaded to sell it.

In the 5 October edition of her weekly newsletter, Business Leadership South Africa chief executive Busiswe Mavuso said although the renewal of Agoa “should remain an objective” for South Africa, “we must confront the reality that Agoa may be permanently consigned to history”.

“Nevertheless, we should continue pressing for success in the Washington negotiations. […] Jobs in both countries depend on getting this right. There are many US companies – particularly those integrated into supply chains with South African manufacturers – who will be harmed by Agoa’s expiry as well.”

Mavuso also said that al­­though there was a possibility that the US could grant an extension of Agoa, it was unclear whether South Africa would be included in the programme “given the broader issues that have arisen between the two countries”. These would include South Africa’s warm relations with Iran, Russia and China, which the US views as a threat to its foreign policy and national security interests. DM